Alastair Darling did not dare say it. The Bank of England has not dared yet either. But the OECD has stomped where the Chancellor and the Bank fear to tread.
Yesterday the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development forecast recession for the
The recession will not officially be identified until next year, of course. In
This definition is not an iron law and you can pick another - rather like the inflation rate. The official rate is defined by the government's Consumer Prices Index, which provides a fairly limited guide to what is happening to prices. Check the official rate against your quarterly supermarket or fuel bills if in doubt.
So the OECD says the
Combine this with Darling's astonishing suggestion at the weekend that
We already know the economy stagnated in April-June and grew just 0.3% in the first three months of the year - the Office for National Statistics has told us.
Last week, the CBI reported the retail sales figures for August were the worst in 25 years. The Office for National Statistics did not tell us that - its most recent figures suggested a small recovery.
We are in dangerous territory when economists do not trust government figures. Yet Darling has been roundly ridiculed for his comments.
It is not even clear yet that this is the worst economic crisis since the early 1980s. The situation is almost certainly worse than the early 1990s.
However, possibly the most disturbing of Darling's comments attracted less attention. It was his warning that the downturn could be "profound and long-lasting". The Chancellor was basically saying - 'whatever the government does, things will get worse for the foreseeable future'.
Can it be only a fortnight since the British Chambers of Commerce was solemnly warning that the
Most economic forecasts tend to be over-optimistic - sometimes hopelessly so - although the British Chambers of Commerce appears more hopeless than most.
Darling has not endeared himself to anyone, but it least he was fairly honest. Reshuffle anyone?
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