The latest Ascent Marketing Intelligence figures for travel trade sales are good - very good in the circumstances.
A 2% year-on-year decline in sales this summer, when TUI Travel and Thomas Cook - the two biggest companies, controlling around half the market - reduced mainstream capacity by more than 10%, is remarkable.
It meant the average rise in prices exceeded the headline rate of inflation. That is not great news for bargain hunters, but late-discount deals have been the bane of the industry for as long as anyone can remember.
The collapse of XL Leisure Group in September removed another 7% of capacity - a body blow for the staff, a shame for the minority of holidaymakers who were unprotected and a headache for agents and tour operators, but no disaster for the industry's outlook as a whole.
Also remarkable, overall bookings for this winter to September were 1% up year on year - and bookings for September itself were up 3%.
In both seasons, it has been the low-price business that has been lost while more costly sales have picked up - suggesting those with less cash are trading down with Ryanair or no longer flying. That conclusion appears borne out by latest
Summer 2009 remains too far off to call. Ascent reported a 3% drop in September bookings on a year ago - which would leave demand ahead of capacity in the coming year. But how many people would commit to a holiday next August at the moment? The post-Christmas sales will provide the first real picture of what to expect.
Two notes of caution are in order.
First - many smaller travel businesses will struggle to find airlines seats as a result of XL Airways' collapse and the resulting prices may deter a proportion of clients, hitting next summer's market. Yet this is no time for start-up carriers to jump in. Tour operators would be wise not to pin hopes on such an outcome.
Second - the Ascent figures take us up to the end of September. But the world economy - and the outlook for the
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