Ryanair figures generally repay scrutiny - allowing one to spot when a headline "40% reduction in winter capacity at Stansted" is really a 14% reduction, for example.
So the carrier's first-quarter profits, reported yesterday, are of interest. Ryanair's description of a "robust performance in a deep recession" is reasonable. Thecarrier turned in a profit of Euros136.5 million for the three months to June, excluding "exceptional items" and "after tax". The latter strikes me as odd for a first-quarter result, but leave that aside. It was six-and-a -half times the profit the year before.
Passenger numbers rose 11% to 16.6 million, but that is not where the increased profit came from. It came almost entirely from the fall in the price Ryanair paid for fuel. That bill fell 42%, or by Euros152 million.
Add in the 13% increase in "ancillary revenues" to Euros165 million and things don't look quite so robust. Whether ancillary revenue continues to rise at such rate as passengers cotton on to the penalties for failing to check-in online or taking a bag on holiday need not concern us here.
Ryanair had 11% more bums on seats year on year, but it recorded a 3% fall in revenue from fares. The more you carry, the less you make is unlikely to prove a sustainable long-term model. Allied to a warning of still lower fares and annual profits at the bottom range of a previous forecast, this was enough to produce a 9% fall in Ryanair's share price yesterday.
The Financial Times points out the carrier's shares "still trade on almost 20 times the forecast earnings" - suggesting the only way is down.
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